Northwestern Football: 2021 Preview & Predictions

QUARTERBACKS: Johnson gets a second chance as starter

You can chalk Northwestern’s tear through the Big Ten West last season up to its lockdown defense, but the consistent and poised play of graduate transfer Peyton Ramsey — an All-Big Ten Third Team selection in 2020 — sure made a difference.

Following Ramsey’s departure, the Wildcats will again entrust their offense to a transfer quarterback. For the season opener against Michigan State, that transfer will be Hunter Johnson.

Johnson arrived at Clemson as a five-star recruit and ESPN’s top-ranked quarterback in the Class of 2017. But after transferring to NU in the spring of 2018, Johnson couldn’t fulfill his promise in his first year as the Cats’ starter, throwing just one touchdown to four interceptions in his five starts.

Still, there’s reason for optimism that Johnson can turn his college career around in his senior season. His improved accuracy and leadership abilities won over the Cats’ coaches in a summer-long quarterback competition, and his past experience as a starter and knowledge of second-year offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian’s system are valuable assets.

If Johnson struggles, coach Pat Fitzgerald could call on NU’s other recent transfer: spring acquisition and sophomore Ryan Hilinski. Hilinski started 11 games as a true freshman at South Carolina, throwing for 11 touchdowns and 2,357 yards against a slate of SEC defenses. Senior Andrew Marty, another contestant in the quarterback competition this summer, offers another backup option with on-field experience.

Expect whichever quarterback lines up under center to factor into the run game, too. Johnson’s ability to make plays on the ground — he rushed for 55 rushing yards and a touchdown in a win against UNLV in 2019 — should add another dimension to the offense. Marty, who racked up 111 yards and a pair of touchdowns against Illinois as a sophomore, is another explosive runner and saw action as a gadget player in 2020.

For NU, success at the quarterback position this season will be the exact inverse of the Cats’ 2019 season: consistent, injury-free and dynamic play. If Johnson can reach those standards and unlock his talent, NU will have a chance at finishing what they started last December.

- John Riker

RUNNING BACKS: Porter’s absence gives Hull a chance to shine as No. 1 back

After an impressive freshman campaign of 333 rushing yards and five touchdowns, many spectators expected Northwestern’s 2020 leading rusher Cam Porter to be the Wildcats’ Week 1 starter. Alongside the stats, the running back landed on the Doak Walker Award watch list, given to a group of the top tailbacks in college football.

However, after the news of Porter’s season-ending lower-body injury in preseason camp, offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian must turn to his other three backs to carry the load.

Redshirt sophomore Evan Hull, the longest tenured running back for NU, is now the Week 1 starter out of the backfield. Hull saw his carries nearly split in half last season, yet he still picked up 209 yards and two touchdowns.

Coach Pat Fitzgerald expressed how both running backs intended to be the number one option entering this year, and now Hull is ready for the job. He will look to showcase his playmaking ability — best demonstrated during a 220-yard, four touchdown performance against UMass in 2019.

Outside of Hull, the two newcomers to the running back room are graduate transfer Andrew Clair and freshman Anthony Tyus III. Both come from Midwestern states: Bowling Green State University in Ohio for Clair and Portage Northern High School in Michigan for Tyus III. Clair enters with a hefty resume, reaching 1,937 rushing yards with the Falcons, while Tyus III — NU’s second-highest ranked running back in school history — recorded 1,801 yards and 22 touchdowns during his high school senior season.

It can be expected that all three players in this year’s group will be useful tools in Bajakian’s offense. Additionally, NU may at some point turn to their three other sophomores — Marcus Cisco, Connor Newhouse and Jake Arthurs — in the running back room as well. Of the three, only Cisco has made an appearance, rushing for six yards on three attempts.

- Lawrence Price III

WIDE RECEIVERS: Young unit looks to grow with Johnson back under center

Last year, Riley Lees, Kyric McGowan and Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman led Northwestern’s wide receiver room, combining for 1,088 yards and 7 touchdowns. The three wideouts brought experience to the field and developed a strong chemistry with former quarterback Peyton Ramsey.

With all three gone, NU will now look to graduate transfer Stephon Robinson Jr., senior Berkeley Holman and sophomore Bryce Kirtz as its Week One starters.

Robinson Jr. brings much-needed game experience to the Cats. Robinson Jr. caught 45 passes for 727 yards and eight touchdowns in a breakout 2019 campaign at Kansas. His 2020 season was hampered by injury, but Robinson Jr. is a big play receiver, averaging 16.5 yards per catch during the 2019 season.

If Robinson Jr. can find his stride and return to somewhere near his level of production in 2019, he’ll provide a huge boost to an otherwise inexperienced NU receiver room and open up the field for the Cats’ passing attack.

Holman caught nine passes last year for 124 yards — averaging 13.8 yards per catch — before suffering an injury at Michigan State. Kirtz caught just six passes for 67 yards last year as a freshman, but like Holman, he will see a major increase in usage this season as he develops. Kirtz played with Johnson at Brownsburg High School in Indiana, so their built-in chemistry will be an asset for a new group trying to gel.

Malik Washington, Raymond Niro III and Genson Hooper-Price will be backing up Holman, Robinson Jr. and Kirtz. Washington is the most experienced of the three, but caught just five passes for 51 yards last year and was limited due to injury. He entered the transfer portal at the end of the 2020 season, but chose to return to NU. Niro III has played both running back and wide receiver at NU, while Hooper-Price — who stands at six-foot-five — provides great size to the receiver group.

Thanks to redshirt rules, four-star recruit freshman Jordan Mosley and three-star freshman Calvin Johnson II can play up to four games this season and still retain a season of eligibility, so the two might get time early on in the season against non-conference opponents like Duke, Indiana State and Ohio.

- Gabriela Carroll

TIGHT ENDS: Mangieri leads unit loaded with depth

For offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian, instituting tight ends back into Northwestern offense was a successful move in 2020.

Tight end John Raine arrived from Florida Atlantic and became a top target of Peyton Ramsey, reeling in 24 catches for 233 yards and two touchdowns. Senior Charlie Mangieri grabbed a career-high seven passes for 53 yards and two touchdowns — both in red zone situations.

Two tight end sets are common in Bajakian’s offense and important for blocking and opening up the Wildcats’ passing game. With Raine now in the National Football League, Mangieri is the leader of a room that is laden with depth, with much to prove in production.

Mangieri’s role in the Cats’ offense is set to increase this season. With just 74 total receiving yards over three seasons, the senior has spent the summer improving his route running and catching ability. Grabbing his first career touchdown last season against Wisconsin and racking up a career-high 16-yard reception against Ohio State gave a glimpse of Mangieri’s skills as a receiver.

Fifth-year Trey Pugh is back after dealing with injury issues for the last two seasons. Even though Pugh did not play under Bajakian last year — he registered five catches for 38 yards from 2017 to 2019 — Mangieri in August complemented his grasp of the offense.

A potential breakout player in the room is redshirt sophomore Thomas Gordon, who impressed in spring camp, according to Bajakian. Even though he has yet to register a catch, NU’s offensive coordinator believes Gordon can be one of the unit’s emerging players, similar to Mangieri’s rise in 2020.

The unit also includes junior Jason Whittaker, who previously played quarterback and superback, sophomores Marshall Lang and Hunter Welcing and freshman Lawson Albright, a three-star recruit from the Class of 2020.

In 2021, NU will be withouts its four leading receivers — including Raine — from last season, emphasizing the importance of consistent performances from the Cats’ tight ends. Success from Mangieri, Pugh and the rest of the tight end room could help lift NU’s offense to new heights.

- Drew Schott

OFFENSIVE LINE: Skoronski headlines o-linemen ready to perform

The offensive line will be one of Northwestern’s experienced position groups providing a strong foundation for the offense and protection for quarterback Hunter Johnson, who returns as a starter after struggling in 2019.

Luckily for Johnson and NU, the offensive line has improved significantly since then and is projected to take more steps forward this year. Sophomore Peter Skoronski, the best offensive line recruit in NU football history, lived up to his high expectations last year with a stellar debut season. Skoronski and the Wildcats’ offensive line allowed just 1.29 sacks per game last year — good for third in the conference — with Skoronski receiving All-Big Ten Second Team honors at left tackle.

In addition to Skoronski, the Cats also return senior Sam Gerak, who has started all 21 games at center over the past two seasons and senior Ethan Wiederkehr, who started all eight games at right guard last season. Wiederkehr will slide out to right tackle this season. Junior Charlie Schmidt and sophomore Josh Priebe — who have one combined start between them — are also likely to play large roles this season at right guard and left guard, respectively.

Backup left guard Dom D’Antonio and backup center Ben Wrather both appeared in eight games last season, experience that should help see increased roles in the future, and possibly in 2021. Backup right tackle Caleb Tiernan, a four-star recruit coming into NU, is the only freshman on the depth chart at any position. His development will play a key role in the future of the Cats’ offensive line.

- Gabriela Carroll

DEFENSIVE LINE: Undermanned in 2020, D-line welcomes back talent from opt-outs and injuries

The list of players more crucial to Northwestern’s 2020 success than Adetomiwa Adebawore is not long. Pressed into a bigger role by opt-outs and injuries, the junior defensive end from Kansas City amassed seven combined tackles in the Wildcats’ wins over Nebraska and Purdue. Then, in NU’s biggest game of the regular season, he hurried quarterback Graham Mertz five times as the Cats toppled the Badgers.

In 2021, the Wildcats will benefit from a more fully formed unit, even after Earnest Brown IV was drafted by the Los Angeles Rams and Eku Leota transferred to Auburn. Graduate student defensive end Samdup Miller, who garnered freshman All-American acclaim back in 2017, is back after opting out of last season. Miller brings experience from NU’s first trip to the Big Ten Championship Game in 2018, where he registered a pair of tackles for loss against Ohio State. Senior defensive tackle Trevor Kent, limited to four games in 2020 by injury, is also a holdover from the 2018 team.

The heart and soul of the defensive line, however, is graduate student Joe Spivak. The tackle was awarded the honor of wearing No. 1 this season by his teammates and is coming off a year in which he recorded a career-high 14 tackles. Spivak also moonlighted as a blocking back in 2020, lending his 300-pound frame to the offense on several occasions — including on the Cats’ first touchdown of the season against Maryland.

Other contributors to watch include junior Jason Gold Jr., who was also limited by injury in 2020,and graduate transfers Jeremy Meiser from Old Dominion and Jeffery Pooler Jr. from West Virginia, along with sophomores Te-Rah Edwards and Devin O’Rourke.

Life won’t be easy for this unit, with division foes Wisconsin and Iowa boasting their usual formidable offensive lines. But this is a deep group, and with Adebawore and Miller leading the way, it should continue to be a strength for NU even as it retools its defense under new coordinator Jim O’Neil.

- Patrick Andres

LINEBACKERS: With Fisher and Gallagher gone, Bergin looks to lead new starters

When it came to linebacking corps during the 2020 season, there arguably was not a better group than NU’s. The trio of Paddy Fisher, Blake Gallagher and Chris Bergin combined for 228 tackles and each finished individually among the top 10 tacklers in the Big Ten. The three also received conference honors, with Fisher being named Butkus-Fitzgerald Big Ten Linebacker of the year.

However Bergin will be the lone returner of the trio in 2021, as both Gallagher and Fisher have taken their talents to the next level in the National Football League.

Without his two partners from the Irish Law Firm, Bergin is now the unquestioned leader of the group. From walk-on to preseason All-Big Ten Second Team and Butkus Award Watch List member, the graduate flourished in 2020, with four games of double-digit tackles and his first career interception against Nebraska. After an impressive 86 tackles over 12 games in 2019, Bergin picked up 78 in nine games last year.

Behind Bergin, the group lacks experience. Graduate student Peter McIntyre, the starting Will linebacker, has recorded 10 tackles over his career at NU. Like McIntyre, junior Khalid Jones — who picked up three tackles last season — may see the field more. He is competing with sophomore Bryce Gallagher, Blake’s brother, for starting Mike linebacker. Gallagher played in all nine games in 2020 and racked up three tackles.

Junior linebacker Jaylen Rivers and sophomore linebacker Xander Mueller may also see the field in 2021. Rivers, who has appeared in 13 games for the Cats, made three tackles last season, while Mueller appeared in the 2020 season opener against Maryland.

With a leader like Bergin guiding the linebacking corps, this group will strive to be one of the Big Ten’s best once again.

- Lawrence Price III

DEFENSIVE BACKS: Joseph and Co. prowling for picks in secondary

Secondary stalwarts Greg Newsome II and JR Pace are now roaming NFL defensive backfields, but don’t bank on a drop-off from Northwestern’s defensive backs.

A key reason: the return of reigning All-American selection sophomore Brandon Joseph, who picked off six passes and made the Wildcats’ play of the year with a one-handed interception in the 2020 Big Ten Championship Game. Joseph was one of ten players named as Big Ten preseason honorees and will look to build off his 2020 success.

NU will also return three other members of the vaunted Pick Club to its secondary: junior A.J. Hampton Jr., sophomore Cameron Mitchell and sophomore Coco Azema. Each played in at least six games in 2020 and saw postseason action, with Hampton starting in the Big Ten Championship and The Citrus Bowl. Senior Bryce Jackson and sophomore Rod Heard II are also in the mix to start in Week 1.

Sophomore Jaheem Joseph, sophomore Garnett Hollis Jr. and graduate transfer Trent Carrington from Presbyterian will give the unit depth and experience.

Aside from replacing the production of Newsome and Pace, the Cats’ secondary will have the responsibility of incorporating new concepts under new defensive coordinator Jim O’Neil. Defensive backs coach Matt MacPherson, one of the minds behind last year’s breakout performance, should provide continuity in the transition.

One of the factors behind NU’s resurgence last season was the defense’s ability to force turnovers — the Cats jumped from 1.2 turnovers forced per game in 2019 to 2.1 in 2020. Joseph’s highlight-reel interceptions contributed to that improvement, but the unit as a whole made plays in the most important moments. The secondary played a role in the Cats forcing four turnovers in a 43-3 season-opening win against Maryland, three in a 21-20 road upset of Iowa and a season-high five against then-No. 10 Wisconsin.

The secret is out on Joseph, and opposing Big Ten offenses will be reluctant to throw his way. Now, the question for NU’s defensive back room this year is when the rest of the secondary is tested, will they be up to the task?

- John Riker

SPECIAL TEAMS: Kuhbander, Adams lend Northwestern a wealth of experience

Placekicking remains the domain of graduate student Charlie Kuhbander, who enters the 2021 season fifth on Northwestern’s all-time scoring list. In four seasons in Evanston, Kuhbander has attempted 117 extra points and made 115 for a percentage of 98.3. He drilled nine field goals in 12 attempts in 2020, including three in the opener against Maryland and two apiece against Purdue and Michigan State. His veteran presence will come in handy in close games as he attempts to make up the 54 points separating him from the Wildcats’ current scoring king: kicker Jeff Budzien.

Kuhbander, for all his experience, looks downright green compared to punter Derek Adams, a fellow graduate student who has played college football since 2016. Adams came to NU from Kent State and averaged north of 40 yards per punt for a fourth full season. Given the Cats’ methodical style of play, which forced Adams to punt 44 times last year in a nine-game schedule, the 24-year-old stands to play a highly visible role in his sixth season.

Should Kuhbander or Adams get hurt, junior kicker Trey Finison and junior punter Jake Genyk are viable backup options.

The Cats do not lack candidates to return kicks and punts in 2021, even as 2020 starters Riley Lees and Kyric McGowan departed for the pro ranks and Georgia Tech, respectively.

Redshirt sophomore defensive back Coco Azema averaged 28.5 yards on two kick returns last year, and wide receiver Bryce Kirtz is slated for punt return duties. Additionally, graduate student wide receiver Stephon Robinson Jr. brings extensive special teams experience from his career at Kansas, including 11 returns for 247 yards in 2019.

- Patrick Andres

SEASON PREDICTIONS

Patrick Andres: 8-4, 5-4 Big Ten

Northwestern’s schedule lines up favorably, at least in the early going. In late October, however, things get prickly. During a four-week stretch that will make or break NU in 2021, the Cats visit Michigan, host Minnesota and Iowa and visit Wisconsin. Spencer Petras and Graham Mertz, the Hawkeyes’ and Badgers’ starting quarterbacks, will have more experience under their belts than they did in 2020, when NU held the pair to a combined completion percentage of 53.8.

An improved division, injuries and a talent exodus from 2020 will work against the Cats in 2021. NU also went 3-0 in one-possession games and tied for 11th in the country in turnovers forced per game last season, two metrics that tend to fluctuate year over year.

The fall, however, will not be catastrophic, unlike after NU’s last division title in 2018. Offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian’s freewheeling approach will keep the Cats in games no matter who plays quarterback. NU has recruited and will deploy bonafide National Football League talent, particularly on the offensive line in All-Big Ten honoree and sophomore Peter Skoronski and in the secondary with All-American sophomore safety Brandon Joseph.

The Cats will take a step back in 2021, but the definition of a step back for this program has changed. An eight- or nine-win season and division contention are within the realm of possibility, even if the lofty heights of the College Football Playoff Top 10 may be a bit out of reach. Still, this season will be a testament to the growth of NU under coach Pat Fitzgerald.

Gabriela Carroll: 7-5, 4-5 Big Ten

Northwestern returns very few of their starters from last year, and the team has a young and inexperienced roster with a lot of potential. The development and usage of the team’s younger players is something I’m going to watch closely. I don’t think a true “rebuild” can exist with the quick turnarounds and timelines of college football, but this year’s team might come pretty close.

Coach Pat Fitzgerald is bringing in strong recruiting classes each year, and NU is developing a program that wants to be — and has the ability to be — a consistent conference contender each year. But with the level of returning production this year, I’d be surprised to see the Cats compete at the level they did last year.

I think Northwestern will sweep its non-conference slate, and grab a few conference wins against teams like Rutgers, Nebraska and Illinois, but ultimately, the squad will be too young and inexperienced to make a real splash in the Big Ten this season. However, a momentum-building bowl win at the end of the year will help propel NU into next season.

A successful year in 2021 will include major steps forward from all of the Cats’ new starters and young players, and hopefully star safety Brandon Joseph will stick around for one more season after this one, because, as usual, this roster should be competitive again next year.

Drew Schott: 10-2, 7-2 Big Ten

Though NU returns the lowest amount of production in the Football Bowl Subdivision from last season, Pat Fitzgerald isn’t concerned. “I knew the focus a little bit today would be on what we have lost,” the Wildcats’ head coach said during Big Ten Media Days in July. “I couldn't be more excited about what we have.”

With impact players such as All-American sophomore safety Brandon Joseph, NU has a roster it believes can contend for a third Big Ten West title in four years. Additionally, the Cats are out to show that 2018 and 2020 were not anomalies and that they are yearly contenders for a Big Ten Championship.

NU needs to get off to a fast start with a win against Michigan State. With success against non-conference opponents and wins against Nebraska and Rutgers, the Cats could be looking at a 6-0 record heading into a matchup with Michigan at the Big House — its last contest before five straight division matchups.

Matchups against Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin — who roster three of the top quarterbacks in the Big Ten — will define the Cats’ quest to return to Indianapolis.

Last year, the Cats used hard-fought, defensive-led performances to beat the Hawkeyes and the Badgers. If they do the same this season and Mike Bajakian’s offense continues to grow during his second season in Evanston, NU may once again get the chance to play for its first conference title since 2000.

Lawrence Price III: 8-4, 5-4 Big Ten

When looking at last year’s squad, the Cats had many key components to their success, including experience. A year later, some of the team’s most experienced players like linebackers Paddy Fisher and safety JR Pace are gone.

This leaves a lot of speculation for what to expect on both sides of the ball, but if there is someone who knows, it would be coach Pat Fitzgerald, who led the Wildcats to their best season since 1995 in 2020.

Out of the gate, NU will need time to mesh together and feel comfortable. The Cats’ need to find their rhythm as early as they can this season, especially with senior Hunter Johnson back under center for the first time since 2019 and new defensive coordinator Jim O’Neil at the helm.

Although playing Michigan State at home and competing against Michigan on the road provide good competition, the real tests of the season come in the back half of the schedule. NU will play Big Ten West foes Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin and Purdue four weeks in a row.

With playmakers like All-Big Ten graduate linebacker Chris Bergin and All-American sophomore safety Brandon Joseph, this Cats team has the talent to compete. And if Johnson can show why he was the top quarterback in the nation coming out of high school, the team could find itself duking it out with Wisconsin once again for a Big Ten West title and a spot in the Big Ten Championship.

John Riker: 8-4, 5-4 Big Ten

There’s ample reason to expect regression to the mean after the Cats’ best season in two decades: graduations on either side of the ball, a new defensive coordinator, an improved division, a season-ending injury to starting running back Cam Porter and a starting quarterback who has yet to prove he belongs in the Big Ten.

None of those reasons feels conclusive enough to write off NU as a Big Ten West contender.

The September slate, mixing a middling Michigan State squad with three winnable non-conference matchups, gives Hunter Johnson a great runway to take off and regain his confidence under center. If the Wildcats take care of business early and win three of four Big Ten October matchups — against Rutgers, Nebraska, Michigan and Minnesota — NU will be in the conversation for a Big Ten West title come November.

For the Cats to contend with Iowa and Wisconsin in the regular season’s final weeks, a couple looming questions will have to break right. If the offense nears last year’s production behind consistent quarterback play and emergent playmakers and the defense doesn’t slide under new defensive coordinator Jim O’Neil, this season should look more like 2020 than 2019.

Behind proven coaching and a battle-tested culture, NU will accomplish all three. A Big Ten Championship berth is too much to ask from a retooling team and a midseason losing streak will rock the boat, but Ryan Field will host a winner again.

And thankfully, this time fans will be around to see it.